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10

Blue Hero

8yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 59

Bath · AEL Solutions Handicap · 1m

#5

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has 11 course wins to name, including 2 more this summer. Narrowly denied by Buckland Belle over C&D at the beginning of this month but posted a rare below-par effort back here since.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Bath 14/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 53 · 1m2f37y GS 138 · beat its mark14/09/2025 · OR 53 par14/096OR 535 @ Bath 30/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 52 · 1m2f37y Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/09/2025 · OR 52 par6 @ Bath 13/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 51 · 1m2f37y Fm 132 · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 51 par13/056OR 516 @ Bath 13/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 50 · 1m3f137y Gd 131 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Bath 01/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 49 · 1m Fm 135 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 49 par1/076OR 496 @ Bath 15/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 51 · 1m Fm 131 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 51 par6 @ Bath 31/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 55 · 1m2f37y Fm 138 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 55 par31/076OR 556 @ Bath 02/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 57 · 1m Goo 132 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 57 par5 @ Bath 13/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 59 · 1m GS 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 59 par13/095OR 59projClass-projected finish: 4th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Bath57th6th+1
2026-09-02Bath62nd2nd0
2026-07-31Bath61st1st0
2026-07-15Bath62nd2nd0
2026-07-01Bath61st1st0
2026-06-13Bath68th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0913/0631/0713/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength74%

Delivery trend -0.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/09/20256th8/158%55%-0.03
30/09/20258th28/10%42%+0.42
13/05/20264th10/147%50%+0.03
13/06/20268th14/126%42%+0.15
01/07/20261st14/126%100%+0.74
15/07/20262nd9/488%83%-0.05
31/07/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
02/09/20262nd12/137%90%+0.53
13/09/20267th9/153%33%-0.19