9
Buckland Belle
3yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 63
Bath · AEL Solutions Handicap · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
88%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength42%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Beverley | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Bath | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Windsor | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Brighton | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Leicester | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Chepstow | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength59%
Delivery trend -6.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 08/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 82% | -0.11 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 03/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 83% | -0.10 |
| 22/07/2026 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 05/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |
| 24/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 02/09/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 22/09/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 89% | -0.03 |