Chilly Breeze
4yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 65
Bath · AEL Solutions Handicap · 1m
#10
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Chester | 5 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-08-03 | Windsor | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Doncaster | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Sandown | 4 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-06-12 | Chester | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Yarmouth | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 12th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/04/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 23/07/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 14/08/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 20/05/2026 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 12/06/2026 | 7th | 100/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 03/07/2026 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 23/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 03/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 83% | -0.10 |
| 11/09/2026 | 11th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |