IvyArcIvyArc
4

Dappled Light

6yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 64

Bath · AEL Solutions Handicap · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Three-time C&D winner, including back to back at the start of this summer. Well below par back here 16 days ago, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength80%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Bath 30/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 59 · 1m Goo 134 · beat its mark30/09/2025 · OR 59 par30/096OR 596 @ Wolverhampton 28/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 58 · 1m1f104y Std 134 · below its mark28/10/2025 · OR 58 par6 @ Bath 17/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 56 · 1m GS 128 · below its mark17/04/2026 · OR 56 par17/046OR 566 @ Bath 22/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 55 · 1m Goo 126 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Bath 13/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 59 · 1m Gd 134 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 59 par13/066OR 596 @ Ffos Las 30/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 62 · 7f80y Goo 140 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 62 par5 @ Chepstow 16/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 64 · 1m14y GF 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 64 par16/075OR 646 @ Chepstow 29/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 65 · 7f16y Goo 135 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Bath 13/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 65 · 1m GS 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 65 par13/095OR 65projClass-projected finish: 5th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Bath57th6th+1
2026-08-29Chepstow64th4th0
2026-07-16Chepstow52nd1st+1
2026-06-30Ffos Las62nd2nd0
2026-06-13Bath61st1st0
2026-05-22Bath61st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0922/0516/0713/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 3-14 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength38%

Delivery trend +2.4% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/09/20255th5/174%60%-0.14
28/10/20258th9/153%13%-0.40
17/04/20267th9/153%14%-0.38
22/05/20261st14/126%100%+0.74
13/06/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
30/06/20262nd5/287%86%-0.01
16/07/20262nd5/174%80%+0.06
29/08/20264th7/282%57%-0.24
13/09/20267th14/126%33%+0.07