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13

Denby's Dream

3yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 59

Bath · AEL Solutions Handicap · 1m

#8

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made all at Brighton in June but below par in her 3 outings since.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength49%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Lingfield 28/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 62 · 6f1y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/02/2026 · OR 62 par28/025OR 626 @ Lingfield 14/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 60 · 1m1y Std 135 · beat its mark14/04/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Bath 27/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 60 · 1m Fm 135 · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 60 par27/046OR 606 @ Kempton 20/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 60 · 1m Sta 130 · below its mark20/05/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Bath 13/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 59 · 1m Gd 129 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 59 par13/066OR 596 @ Brighton 30/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 58 · 7f216y GF 133 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Chepstow 08/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 58 · 1m14y GF 135 · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 58 par8/076OR 585 @ Windsor 27/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 62 · 1m31y GF 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 62 par5 @ Bath 13/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 61 · 1m GS 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 61 par13/095OR 61projClass-projected finish: 9th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Bath56th5th+1
2026-07-27Windsor56th5th+1
2026-07-08Chepstow66th6th0
2026-06-30Brighton61st1st0
2026-06-13Bath67th7th0
2026-05-20Kempton612th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0220/058/0713/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 13-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -6.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/02/20265th40/10%50%+0.50
14/04/20262nd8/158%91%+0.33
27/04/20262nd3/184%80%-0.04
20/05/202612th25/10%8%+0.08
13/06/20267th10/147%54%+0.06
30/06/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
08/07/20266th9/276%29%-0.48
27/07/20266th13/266%29%-0.37
13/09/20266th16/116%44%+0.29