8
Exotic Baby
3yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 65
Bath · AEL Solutions Handicap · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength67%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Southwell | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Southwell | 4 | 10th | 8th | +2 |
| 2026-06-26 | Yarmouth | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Kempton | 4 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-05-27 | Kempton | 4 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-05-08 | Ascot | 4 | 11th | 9th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 5-14 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength24%
Delivery trend +4.4% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 82% | +0.11 |
| 08/11/2025 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 25% | -0.68 |
| 20/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 08/05/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/05/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 10/06/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |
| 26/06/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 27/07/2026 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 03/09/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |