Fizzy Bear
3yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 58
Bath · AEL Solutions Handicap · 1m
#11
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 7.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Epsom Downs | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-08-10 | Windsor | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Kempton | 6 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-04-18 | Newbury | 4 | 17th | 15th | +2 |
| 2026-04-01 | Kempton | 4 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 18/04/2026 | 17th | 80/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 28/04/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 20/05/2026 | 13th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 10/08/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 10/09/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |