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12

Havana Club

4yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 56

Bath · AEL Solutions Handicap · 1m

#7

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Resumed winning ways over C&D (firm) in July. Creditable third of 7 at Windsor next time but his run of good form came to a halt when well behind Buckland Belle and stablemate Blue Hero here 4 weeks ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 16/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 56 · 6f20y Std 130 · below its mark16/02/2026 · OR 56 par16/026OR 566 @ Lingfield 25/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 53 · 7f1y Std 134 · beat its mark25/03/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Bath 05/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 51 · 1m Goo 131 · beat its mark05/04/2026 · OR 51 par5/046OR 516 @ Bath 29/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 50 · 1m Fm 130 · beat its mark29/04/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Bath 12/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 52 · 1m Fm 127 · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 52 par12/056OR 526 @ Windsor 29/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 52 · 1m31y GF 132 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Bath 15/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 52 · 1m Fm 132 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 52 par15/076OR 526 @ Windsor 03/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 57 · 1m31y GF 127 · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Bath 02/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 57 · 1m Goo 132 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 57 par2/096OR 57projClass-projected finish: 8th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Bath68th8th0
2026-08-03Windsor63rd3rd0
2026-07-15Bath61st1st0
2026-06-29Windsor64th4th0
2026-05-12Bath66th6th0
2026-04-29Bath62nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0229/0415/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 8-14 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength9%

Delivery trend -4.6% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/02/20268th22/10%0%0.00
25/03/20268th22/10%13%+0.13
05/04/20264th18/15%75%+0.70
29/04/20262nd9/276%88%+0.11
12/05/20266th10/382%44%-0.38
29/06/20264th15/261%70%+0.09
15/07/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
03/08/20263rd13/266%67%+0.01
02/09/20268th15/261%30%-0.31