Man From Havana
4yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 62
Bath · AEL Solutions Handicap · 1m
#14
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 7.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | Kempton | 6 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-10-15 | Nottingham | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-09-08 | Windsor | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-06-09 | Windsor | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -10.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/06/2025 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 08/09/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 15/10/2025 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 10/06/2026 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |