5
Mayberry Moon
4yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 63
Bath · AEL Solutions Handicap · 1m
#13
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength61%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Chepstow | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Ffos Las | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-29 | Ffos Las | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-09-09 | Carlisle | 5 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2025-07-29 | Beverley | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-07-10 | Carlisle | 5 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 11-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 06/06/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 21/06/2025 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 71% | +0.29 |
| 10/07/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 29/07/2025 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 11% | -0.57 |
| 09/09/2025 | 11th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 29/06/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 14/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 29/08/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 14% | -0.28 |