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2

Rating

5yo Mare · 10-0 · OR 65

Bath · AEL Solutions Handicap · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner in May and added to tally at Chepstow (1m, good) in August. Creditable third of 10 over C&D (good to soft) 16 days ago. Likely to be in the mix again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength92%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Bath 22/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 62 · 1m Goo 133 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 62 par22/056OR 626 @ Bath 26/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 62 · 1m Fm 135 · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 62 par5 @ Salisbury 14/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 64 · 1m Gd 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 64 par14/065OR 645 @ Chepstow 27/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 64 · 1m14y GF 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 64 par5 @ Chepstow 16/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 63 · 1m14y GF 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 63 par16/075OR 635 @ Chepstow 24/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 63 · 1m14y GF 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 63 par6 @ Chepstow 18/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 62 · 1m14y GF 132 · beat its mark18/08/2026 · OR 62 par18/086OR 622 @ Chepstow 31/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR 66 · 1m14y Goo 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Bath 13/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 66 · 1m GS 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 66 par13/095OR 66projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Bath53rd2nd+1
2026-08-31Chepstow28th3rd+4
2026-08-18Chepstow61st1st0
2026-07-24Chepstow55th4th+1
2026-07-16Chepstow53rd2nd+1
2026-06-27Chepstow55th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0527/0618/0813/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength83%

Delivery trend +3.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/05/20263rd11/271%80%+0.09
26/05/20261st1/195%100%+0.05
14/06/20265th9/153%67%+0.14
27/06/20265th15/261%33%-0.27
16/07/20263rd17/255%60%+0.05
24/07/20265th11/271%20%-0.51
18/08/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
31/08/20268th18/15%53%+0.48
13/09/20263rd9/153%78%+0.25