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Thiscouldbefun

4yo Filly · 10-0 · OR 65

Bath · AEL Solutions Handicap · 1m

#6

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Capitalised on a falling mark under an enterprising ride at Salisbury (1m, good) last month but well held back there twice since.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength54%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Lingfield 08/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 69 · 1m1y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/12/2025 · OR 69 par8/125OR 695 @ Southwell 19/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 69 · 1m13y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/12/2025 · OR 69 par5 @ Ffos Las 04/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 67 · 1m GS 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 67 par4/065OR 675 @ Salisbury 14/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 66 · 1m Gd 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Bath 01/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 64 · 1m Fm 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 64 par1/075OR 646 @ Windsor 20/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 63 · 1m2f GF 133 · below its mark20/07/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Salisbury 13/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 61 · 1m Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 61 par13/085OR 615 @ Salisbury 21/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 61 · 1m Goo 147 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 61 par5 @ Salisbury 03/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 66 · 1m Goo 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 66 par3/095OR 66projClass-projected finish: 7th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Salisbury56th5th+1
2026-08-21Salisbury54th3rd+1
2026-08-13Salisbury51st0th+1
2026-07-20Windsor610th10th0
2026-07-01Bath53rd2nd+1
2026-06-14Salisbury510th9th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/1214/0613/083/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 11-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -5.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/12/20256th18/15%44%+0.39
19/12/20254th7/163%0%-0.63
04/06/20266th16/116%50%+0.34
14/06/202610th25/10%25%+0.25
01/07/20263rd12/137%67%+0.30
20/07/202610th16/116%10%-0.06
13/08/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
21/08/20264th7/282%50%-0.32
03/09/20266th9/276%29%-0.48