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2

Aces Wild

7yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 79

Bath · SW Hire Handicap · 5f 10y

#4

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has thrived this summer, winning over C&D and Newbury before making it 3 wins from 4 starts at Chester, defying a double-figure draw. Always behind back there since but that was on much softer ground.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength24%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newbury 05/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 71 · 5f34y Goo 138 · beat its mark05/08/2025 · OR 71 par5/085OR 714 @ Bath 30/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 73 · 5f10y Goo 131 · beat its mark30/09/2025 · OR 73 par4 @ Bath 17/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 73 · 5f160y Gd 130 · beat its mark17/04/2026 · OR 73 par17/044OR 735 @ Bath 04/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 72 · 5f10y Gd 134 · below its mark04/05/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Bath 26/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 70 · 5f10y Fm 135 · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 70 par26/055OR 705 @ Newbury 01/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 70 · 5f34y GF 139 · beat its mark01/06/2026 · OR 70 par4 @ Chester 10/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 76 · 5f110y Goo 126 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 76 par10/074OR 764 @ Chester 25/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 76 · 5f15y Goo 132 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 76 par3 @ Chester 11/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 80 · 5f15y Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 80 par11/093OR 80projClass-projected finish: 5th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Chester310th9th+1
2026-07-25Chester41st1st0
2026-07-10Chester43rd3rd0
2026-06-01Newbury51st2nd−1
2026-05-26Bath51st2nd−1
2026-05-04Bath56th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/084/0510/0711/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength44%

Delivery trend +2.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/08/20252nd11/271%91%+0.20
30/09/20257th15/261%40%-0.21
17/04/20263rd18/15%80%+0.75
04/05/20266th18/581%0%-0.81
26/05/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
01/06/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
10/07/20263rd17/255%60%+0.05
25/07/20261st20/10%100%+1.00
11/09/202610th16/116%0%-0.16