5
Alondra
4yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 76
Bath · SW Hire Handicap · 5f 10y
#10
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Doncaster | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Doncaster | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Doncaster | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-13 | Yarmouth | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-04-30 | Southwell | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/02/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 09/03/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 17/04/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 30/04/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 60% | +0.05 |
| 13/05/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 29/05/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 05/06/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 42% | +0.15 |
| 26/06/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 03/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |