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6

Brave Nation

6yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 76

Bath · SW Hire Handicap · 5f 10y

#9

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Without a win for Michael Bell in 2025, but after an encouraging first run for this yard he got his head back in front at Newmarket early last month. Easy to forgive latest run at Goodwood and he remains well treated on old form.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength53%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Chester 26/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 84 · 5f15y Goo 139 · beat its mark26/07/2025 · OR 84 par26/074OR 844 @ Windsor 14/08/2025 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 83 · 5f21y GF 136 · below its mark14/08/2025 · OR 83 par3 @ Yarmouth 24/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 81 · 5f42y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/08/2025 · OR 81 par24/083OR 812 @ Southwell 28/08/2025 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 81 · 4f214y Std 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/08/2025 · OR 81 par4 @ Kempton 08/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 79 · 6f Sta 134 · beat its mark08/10/2025 · OR 79 par8/104OR 794 @ Yarmouth 11/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 77 · 5f42y Gd 133 · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Sandown 23/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 75 · 5f10y GF 136 · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 75 par23/074OR 755 @ Newmarket 08/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 73 · 5f GF 137 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 73 par4 @ Goodwood 28/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 76 · 5f GF 136 · beat its mark28/08/2026 · OR 76 par28/084OR 76projClass-projected finish: 6th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-28Goodwood46th6th0
2026-08-08Newmarket51st2nd−1
2026-07-23Sandown43rd3rd0
2026-04-11Yarmouth44th4th0
2025-10-08Kempton47th7th0
2025-08-28Southwell212th10th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0728/0823/0728/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength54%

Delivery trend +4.6% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/07/20253rd15/261%71%+0.11
14/08/202513th13/266%0%-0.66
24/08/20253rd5/287%60%-0.27
28/08/202512th17/255%15%-0.40
08/10/20257th5/174%40%-0.34
11/04/20264th11/271%40%-0.31
23/07/20263rd16/116%67%+0.51
08/08/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
28/08/20266th17/255%38%-0.18