11
Carefree Dream
3yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 67
Bath · SW Hire Handicap · 5f 10y
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Lingfield | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Ascot | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Leicester | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Goodwood | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Goodwood | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Ffos Las | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength69%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 24/09/2025 | 14th | 200/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/04/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 04/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 19/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 04/07/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 24/07/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |