10
Correspondence
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 67
Bath · SW Hire Handicap · 5f 10y
#3
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Sandown | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Brighton | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Bath | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-11 | Windsor | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-29 | Bath | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-02-15 | Newcastle | 6 | 6th | 8th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 12-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/2025 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 11/01/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 06/02/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 15/02/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 38% | -0.18 |
| 29/04/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 11/05/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 26/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 21/06/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 23/07/2026 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 0% | -0.55 |