IvyArcIvyArc
9

Coyy

3yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 73

Bath · SW Hire Handicap · 5f 10y

#8

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Off the mark at Windsor in May and doubled his tally in 4-runner contest at Nottingham in July. Found Glorious Goodwood too much to handle next time and was stretched back over 6f since, so no surprise if he fared better now.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength54%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 08/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 75 · 6f Sta 125 · below its mark08/10/2025 · OR 75 par8/104OR 754 @ Bath 17/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 72 · 5f160y Gd 127 · beat its mark17/04/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Windsor 04/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 69 · 5f21y Goo 134 · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 69 par4/055OR 694 @ Goodwood 23/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 73 · 5f Goo 130 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 73 par2 @ Epsom Downs 05/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR 73 · 5f Gd 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 73 par5/062OR 735 @ Newmarket 20/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 72 · 5f Goo 132 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Nottingham 21/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 71 · 5f8y Goo 133 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 71 par21/075OR 713 @ Goodwood 30/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 18 · OR 71 · 5f Goo 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 71 par4 @ Salisbury 21/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 74 · 6f Goo 129 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 74 par21/084OR 74projClass-projected finish: 8th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21Salisbury44th4th0
2026-07-30Goodwood311th10th+1
2026-07-21Nottingham51st2nd−1
2026-06-20Newmarket54th5th−1
2026-06-05Epsom Downs27th5th+2
2026-05-23Goodwood43rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/1023/0521/0721/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 9-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -2.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/10/20258th50/10%13%+0.13
17/04/202611th11/142%17%-0.25
04/05/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
23/05/20263rd13/266%75%+0.09
05/06/20267th12/137%60%+0.23
20/06/20264th4/179%50%-0.29
21/07/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
30/07/202611th14/126%41%+0.15
21/08/20264th5/174%40%-0.34