4
Forager
4yo Filly · 9-10 · OR 77
Bath · SW Hire Handicap · 5f 10y
#11
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength43%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Lingfield | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Nottingham | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Goodwood | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-11-04 | Lingfield | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-14 | Lingfield | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Lingfield | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 9-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -9.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/2025 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 11/07/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 20/08/2025 | 19th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 13/09/2025 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 67% | +0.61 |
| 14/10/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 04/11/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 22/05/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 11/08/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 03/09/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |