3
Jax Edge
6yo Mare · 9-10 · OR 77
Bath · SW Hire Handicap · 5f 10y
#2
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Goodwood | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Nottingham | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Windsor | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Windsor | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Bath | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Windsor | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength56%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 17/04/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 03/05/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 18/05/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 44% | -0.19 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 27/06/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 13/07/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 36% | -0.16 |
| 11/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 08/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |