1
Toolatetonegotiate
4yo Filly · 9-12 · OR 79
Bath · SW Hire Handicap · 5f 10y
#5
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Lingfield | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Ascot | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Windsor | 3 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Bath | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Bath | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-27 | Bath | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength65%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 05/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 20/03/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 63% | -0.03 |
| 27/04/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 04/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |
| 22/05/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 15/06/2026 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 24/07/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 03/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |