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10

Devon Angel

2yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 48

Bath · Power Logistics Nursery · 5f 160y

#1

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

82%

Place Prob

58%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Creditable second of 14 in nursery at Windsor (6f, good to firm, 9/2) 22 days ago. Blinkers on first time. Likely to give another good account.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength53%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Bath 05/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 5f10y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS5/0444 @ Bath 17/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR - · 5f10y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Bath 12/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 5f10y Fm 125 · HIGHER CLASS12/0556 @ Ffos Las 14/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 45 · 5f Goo 116 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Chepstow 09/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 45 · 5f16y GF 116 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 45 par9/086OR 456 @ Windsor 29/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 45 · 6f12y Sft 115 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Chepstow 31/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 45 · 5f16y Goo 115 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 45 par31/086OR 456 @ Windsor 07/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 46 · 6f12y Goo 116 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 46 par7/096OR 46projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Windsor62nd2nd0
2026-08-31Chepstow62nd2nd0
2026-08-29Windsor64th4th0
2026-08-09Chepstow66th6th0
2026-07-14Ffos Las63rd3rd0
2026-05-12Bath56th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0414/0731/087/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend -0.5% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/04/20267th22/10%33%+0.33
17/04/202611th20/10%17%+0.17
12/05/20266th125/10%17%+0.17
14/07/20263rd7/163%50%-0.13
09/08/20266th18/15%29%+0.23
29/08/20264th50/10%70%+0.70
31/08/20262nd10/382%75%-0.07
07/09/20262nd9/276%92%+0.16