IvyArcIvyArc
1

Past Passion

2yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 64

Bath · Power Logistics Nursery · 5f 160y

#3

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Proving a consistent sort and ran with credit again when third of 14 in nursery (5/1) at Windsor (6f, good to firm) 22 days ago. Likely to give her running again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength98%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +2.2
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Bath 17/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR - · 5f10y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS17/0442 @ Ascot 08/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 5f Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS8/0525 @ Ffos Las 17/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 5f Sft 125 · HIGHER CLASS17/0654 @ Nottingham 02/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 64 · 5f8y Goo 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 64 par2/074OR 642 @ Newbury 18/07/2026 · Pos 14th of 24 · OR 65 · 5f34y GF 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 65 par18/072OR 654 @ Lingfield 18/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 65 · 6f1y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/08/2026 · OR 65 par18/084OR 656 @ Windsor 07/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 64 · 6f12y Goo 134 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 64 par7/096OR 64projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Windsor63rd3rd0
2026-08-18Lingfield44th2nd+2
2026-07-18Newbury214th9th+4
2026-07-02Nottingham42nd0th+2
2026-06-17Ffos Las53rd2nd+1
2026-05-08Ascot22nd-3th+4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/042/077/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength69%

Delivery trend -8.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/04/20267th18/15%50%+0.45
08/05/20262nd18/15%91%+0.86
17/06/20263rd11/486%50%-0.36
02/07/20262nd14/126%83%+0.57
18/07/202614th100/10%43%+0.43
18/08/20264th3/184%63%-0.22
07/09/20263rd5/174%85%+0.11