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Polly The Sniper

2yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 62

Bath · Power Logistics Nursery · 5f 160y

#4

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Best effort (modest form) when second of 6 in a C&D maiden at Bath at the beginning of this month. Not in the same form in a nursery at Southwell since. Cheekpieces are added on the back of that.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength55%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Windsor 03/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 6f12y GF 122 · HIGHER CLASS3/0854 @ Lingfield 18/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 6f1y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS18/0845 @ Bath 02/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 5f160y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS2/0956 @ Southwell 17/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 63 · 6f16y Std 133 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 63 par17/096OR 63projClass-projected finish: 5th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Southwell66th6th0
2026-09-02Bath52nd1st+1
2026-08-18Lingfield46th4th+2
2026-08-03Windsor55th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0818/082/0917/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +9.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/08/20265th66/10%20%+0.20
18/08/20266th28/10%38%+0.38
02/09/20262nd33/10%80%+0.80
17/09/20266th16/116%55%+0.39