1
Distant Rumble
4yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 75
Bath · Clyde And Co Handicap (Div 1) · 5f 160y
#8
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Windsor | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | Windsor | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Newbury | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Newmarket | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-09 | Salisbury | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Windsor | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength59%
Delivery trend -3.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 38% | -0.20 |
| 25/02/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 14/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 23/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 09/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 78% | -0.09 |
| 04/07/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 23/07/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 14% | -0.59 |
| 07/09/2026 | 9th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 14/09/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |