The Thames Boatman
6yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 72
Bath · Clyde And Co Handicap (Div 1) · 5f 160y
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Newbury | 3 | 12th | 10th | +2 |
| 2026-07-25 | Lingfield | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Salisbury | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Brighton | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Windsor | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Goodwood | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/03/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 03/04/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 27/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 01/06/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 57% | +0.02 |
| 21/06/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 30/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 15/08/2026 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |