Guilty Verdict

3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 67

Bath · Clyde And Co Handicap (Div 2) · 5f 160y

#8

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read

Move▬

Strength51%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 4

Recent avg: C4.3

Today: 5

Class gap: +0.7

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2025-09-19	Newbury	4	9th	8th	+1	2.2
2025-08-29	Salisbury	4	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2025-08-04	Windsor	5	4th	4th	0	6.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 9-9 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -55.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
04/08/2025	4th	100/1	0%	63%	+0.63
29/08/2025	3rd	12/1	37%	78%	+0.41
19/09/2025	9th	9/2	76%	27%	-0.49