3
Moe's Legacy
5yo Mare · 9-11 · OR 72
Bath · Clyde And Co Handicap (Div 2) · 5f 160y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
95%
Place Prob
72%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength60%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Sandown | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Kempton | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Chepstow | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Windsor | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Bath | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-29 | Bath | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength72%
Delivery trend +3.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 17/04/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 27/04/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 29/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 22/05/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 90% | +0.16 |
| 06/08/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 04/09/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 11/09/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 63% | -0.03 |