8
Monsieur Patat
9yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 64
Bath · Clyde And Co Handicap (Div 2) · 5f 160y
#7
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Windsor | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Ffos Las | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Windsor | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Newbury | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Kempton | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-11-08 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength69%
Delivery trend -3.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 22% | -0.15 |
| 24/09/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 22/10/2025 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 18% | +0.13 |
| 08/11/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/05/2026 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 23/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 91% | +0.15 |
| 29/06/2026 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 25% | -0.62 |
| 04/08/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 07/09/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |