9
Savannah Smiles
6yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 61
Bath · Clyde And Co Handicap (Div 2) · 5f 160y
#4
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Chepstow | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Chepstow | 6 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Chepstow | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-16 | Chepstow | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Lingfield | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Chepstow | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/04/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 29/04/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 05/06/2026 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 15/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 16/07/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 24/07/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 17% | -0.65 |
| 18/08/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 31/08/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 33% | +0.28 |