3
Rock Blanc
9yo Gelding · 9-3
Chantilly · Prix De La Chambre Du Duc Handicap · 1m 1f 97y
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Chantilly | 3 | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-03-23 | Chantilly | 2 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-02-12 | Chantilly | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-21 | Chantilly | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-12 | Deauville | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-11-10 | Chantilly | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1640% of fieldRange 14-16 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 20/09/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 11/10/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 10/11/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 12/12/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 88% | +0.22 |
| 21/01/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 33% | -0.56 |
| 12/02/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 71% | +0.16 |
| 23/03/2026 | 13th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |
| 04/09/2026 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |