6
Carlston
5yo Gelding · 9-3
Chantilly · Prix Du Salon De Guise Handicap · 1m 1f 97y
#4
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 7.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 3
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Deauville | 3 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Deauville | 3 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Deauville | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Chantilly | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Chantilly | 3 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Chantilly | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1571% of fieldRange 1-15 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength51%
Delivery trend +6.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/03/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 85% | +0.27 |
| 27/03/2026 | 12th | 7/1 | 63% | 27% | -0.36 |
| 17/04/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 04/05/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 19/05/2026 | 12th | 17/2 | 55% | 21% | -0.34 |
| 19/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 28/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 11/08/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 30% | -0.07 |
| 27/08/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |