15
J'aurais Du
10yo Gelding · 8-9
Chantilly · Prix Du Salon De Guise Handicap · 1m 1f 97y
#9
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength25%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Vichy | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Vichy | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Vichy | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-03 | Vichy | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Vichy | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Deauville | 3 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1536% of fieldRange 6-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength37%
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 89% | +0.03 |
| 09/06/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 93% | +0.35 |
| 04/07/2026 | 8th | 17/2 | 55% | 50% | -0.05 |
| 23/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 03/08/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 82% | +0.24 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 03/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 92% | +0.04 |
| 21/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 92% | +0.05 |