12
Geopolitical
4yo Gelding · 9-2
Chantilly · Prix Du Salon Violet Handicap · 1m 1f 97y
#9
Rank
Odds
60/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.9
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Le Lion D'angers | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Mont De Marsan | 2 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Deauville | 3 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Chantilly | 2 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-03-30 | Chantilly | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1521% of fieldRange 8-16 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength17%
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 12th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 79% | -0.03 |
| 18/11/2025 | 12th | 14/1 | 26% | 27% | +0.00 |
| 21/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 30/03/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 28/04/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 04/07/2026 | 14th | 10/1 | 47% | 7% | -0.40 |
| 26/07/2026 | 14th | 18/1 | 5% | 7% | +0.02 |
| 09/08/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 45% | +0.30 |
| 13/09/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 54% | +0.12 |