13
Mon Comedien
4yo Gelding · 9-1
Chantilly · Prix Du Salon Violet Handicap · 1m 1f 97y
#7
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength38%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.6
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Deauville | 2 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-11 | Deauville | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Compiegne | 2 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-07-19 | Chantilly | 3 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Dieppe | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1564% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength65%
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 42% | +0.15 |
| 02/04/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 64% | +0.16 |
| 18/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 16/05/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 19/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 28/07/2026 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 11/08/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 90% | +0.53 |
| 23/08/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 69% | -0.02 |
| 07/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 92% | +0.06 |