4
Afjan
3yo Colt · 8-13
Chantilly · Prix De Bonneval Listed Stakes · 5f 102y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.6
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | Chantilly | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Chantilly | 1 | 4th | 4th | +0 |
| 2026-05-10 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | +0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Chantilly | ? | 3rd | 3rd | +0 |
| 2026-03-16 | Chantilly | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-05 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength50%
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 03/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 31/08/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 05/10/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.30 |
| 16/03/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 14/04/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 10/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 88% | +0.27 |
| 31/05/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 25% | -0.62 |
| 24/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |