5
Kalkara
3yo Gelding · 8-13
Chantilly · Prix De Bonneval Listed Stakes · 5f 102y
#7
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.9
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Deauville | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Saint-Cloud | 2 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-28 | Chantilly | 1 | 7th | 7th | −0 |
| 2026-03-31 | Fontainebleau | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 3rd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-01-29 | Deauville | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 2-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength42%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/2025 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 23/05/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 88% | -0.04 |
| 15/06/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/01/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 10/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 31/03/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 28/04/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 45% | -0.23 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 09/08/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |