2
Mister Sketch
5yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 85
Chantilly · Prix De Bonneval Listed Stakes · 5f 102y
#10
Rank
Odds
70/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲3
Strength21%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 10.5 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | Chantilly | 2 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-22 | Chantilly | ? | 5th | 9th | −4 |
| 2025-10-09 | Ayr | 4 | 11th | 15th | −3 |
| 2025-09-12 | Salisbury | 4 | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
| 2025-08-04 | Ripon | 3 | 11th | 14th | −2 |
| 2025-02-07 | Meydan | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength22%
Delivery trend +2.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/2024 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 03/08/2024 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 20% | +0.15 |
| 31/08/2024 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 44% | -0.11 |
| 07/02/2025 | 12th | 9/1 | 53% | 21% | -0.31 |
| 04/08/2025 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 12/09/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 09/10/2025 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 22/04/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 19/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |