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2yo Filly · 9-12 · OR 79

Cork · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Nursery Handicap (Birdcatcher Series) · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Beaten just 2¼ lengths in valuable 15-runner sales race at the Curragh earlier in the month but down the field in 7f Group 3 there on Sunday. Inflated mark to deal with now back in a nursery (held off 61 at Down Royal a few starts back).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength21%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Cork 14/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR - · 6f Gd 12814/06C8C8 @ Leopardstown 09/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR - · 7f50y Goo 128C8 @ Galway 28/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 7f Yie 12828/07C8BHA64 @ Sligo 05/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 64 · 6f Yie 132 · below its mark05/08/2026 · OR 64 parBHA63 @ Killarney 21/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 63 · 1m30y Gd 121 · below its mark21/08/2026 · OR 63 par21/0863OR 63BHA61 @ Down Royal 04/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 61 · 7f27y Goo 130 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 61 parC5 @ Curragh 13/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 61 · 6f63y Yie 126 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 61 par13/09C5OR 611 @ Curragh 27/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 79 · 7f Hvy 128 · beat its mark27/09/2026 · OR 79 par27/091OR 79projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-27Curragh17th7th0
2026-09-13Curragh?2nd2nd0
2026-09-04Down RoyalBHA614th4th0
2026-08-21KillarneyBHA634th4th0
2026-08-05SligoBHA647th7th0
2026-07-28Galway?10th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/065/0813/0927/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +1.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/06/202612th100/10%15%+0.15
09/07/202610th200/10%25%+0.25
28/07/202610th400/10%18%+0.18
05/08/20267th20/10%45%+0.45
21/08/20264th11/271%40%-0.31
04/09/20264th11/486%67%-0.19
13/09/20262nd200/10%93%+0.93
27/09/20267th100/10%14%+0.14