2
By The Lake
3yo Filly · 9-11 · OR 79
Cork · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Navan | BHA79 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-10 | Dundalk | 1 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-09-19 | Dundalk | BHA83 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Curragh | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-07-05 | Naas | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +9.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 14/09/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 19/09/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 10/10/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 27% | +0.01 |
| 27/08/2026 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |