4
Motta Alta
3yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 77
Cork · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
64%
Place Prob
38%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: BHA76
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Punchestown | BHA77 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Galway | BHA76 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Limerick | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Naas | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength60%
Delivery trend -20.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 19/06/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |
| 15/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 85% | +0.03 |