3
Carrigans Grove
5yo Mare · 10-0 · OR 56
Cork · WTW Willis Handicap (0-60) · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 10.8 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: BHA47
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Curragh | BHA63 | 18th | 18th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Fairyhouse | BHA66 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Fairyhouse | BHA67 | 18th | 18th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Curragh | BHA69 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Curragh | BHA71 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Curragh | BHA72 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 2053% of fieldRange 11-20 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 20. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 92% | +0.05 |
| 30/08/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 26/09/2025 | 10th | 4/1 | 79% | 31% | -0.48 |
| 19/04/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 65% | +0.49 |
| 04/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 79% | +0.31 |
| 03/06/2026 | 10th | 15/2 | 61% | 53% | -0.08 |
| 01/07/2026 | 18th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 08/07/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 18/07/2026 | 18th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |