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El Fontenaro

4yo Filly · 10-1 · OR 57

Cork · WTW Willis Handicap (0-60) · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

95%

Place Prob

69%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Had twice gone close before finally opening her account in C&D handicap 10 weeks ago. That form is solid for the grade and she can go well again after a 4 lb rise.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 6.9)

Highest class: BHA45
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA59 @ Cork 14/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 59 · 5f Goo 132 · beat its mark14/08/2025 · OR 59 par14/0859OR 59BHA58 @ Curragh 30/08/2025 · Pos 14th of 21 · OR 58 · 6f Goo 126 · beat its mark30/08/2025 · OR 58 parBHA53 @ Bellewstown 02/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 53 · 5f3y Sft 137 · beat its mark02/10/2025 · OR 53 par2/1053OR 53BHA52 @ Dundalk 17/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 52 · 7f Std 132 · beat its mark17/10/2025 · OR 52 parBHA49 @ Sligo 03/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 49 · 6f61y Sft 131 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 49 par3/0549OR 49BHA49 @ Fairyhouse 28/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 18 · OR 49 · 6f25y Gd 131 · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 49 parBHA45 @ Fairyhouse 12/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 45 · 6f Goo 127 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 45 par12/0645OR 45BHA48 @ Limerick 11/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 48 · 6f150y Gd 130 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 48 parBHA53 @ Cork 24/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 19 · OR 53 · 6f GF 135 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 53 par24/0753OR 53projClass-projected finish: 1st of 20
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-24CorkBHA531st1st0
2026-07-11LimerickBHA482nd2nd0
2026-06-12FairyhouseBHA452nd2nd0
2026-05-28FairyhouseBHA4911th11th0
2026-05-03SligoBHA494th4th0
2025-10-17DundalkBHA526th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0817/1012/0624/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 20100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 20. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/08/20255th9/276%43%-0.33
30/08/202514th25/10%35%+0.35
02/10/20257th8/158%45%-0.12
17/10/20256th28/10%44%+0.44
03/05/20264th6/168%77%+0.08
28/05/202611th9/153%41%-0.11
12/06/20262nd14/126%93%+0.67
11/07/20262nd4/179%92%+0.13
24/07/20261st10/382%100%+0.18