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Jordan Breeze

4yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 57

Cork · WTW Willis Handicap (0-60) · 6f

#9

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Doubled his tally in 5f handicap here in May and back from a break after lesser efforts the last twice. Unproven beyond the minimum trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class: BHA48
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA48 @ Dundalk 14/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 48 · 5f Std 130 · beat its mark14/10/2025 · OR 48 par14/1048OR 48BHA48 @ Curragh 16/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 48 · 5f Yie 125 · beat its mark16/10/2025 · OR 48 parBHA60 @ Dundalk 31/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 60 · 5f Std 142 · beat its mark31/10/2025 · OR 60 par31/1060OR 60BHA60 @ Dundalk 01/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 60 · 5f Std 142 · beat its mark01/04/2026 · OR 60 parBHA60 @ Bellewstown 11/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 60 · 5f3y Sft 142 · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 60 par11/0460OR 60BHA60 @ Cork 19/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 60 · 5f Sft 142 · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 60 parBHA62 @ Navan 07/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 21 · OR 62 · 5f Goo 132 · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 62 par7/0662OR 62BHA62 @ Down Royal 19/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 62 · 5f Sft 132 · below its mark19/06/2026 · OR 62 parBHA62 @ Naas 04/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 62 · 5f Goo 132 · below its mark04/07/2026 · OR 62 par4/0762OR 62projClass-projected finish: 5th of 20
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-04NaasBHA627th7th0
2026-06-19Down RoyalBHA626th6th0
2026-06-07NavanBHA6211th11th0
2026-05-19CorkBHA601st1st0
2026-04-11BellewstownBHA602nd2nd0
2026-04-01DundalkBHA602nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/101/047/064/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 2047% of fieldRange 15-20 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -9.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 20. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/10/20251st10/147%100%+0.53
16/10/20252nd17/255%93%+0.38
31/10/20255th7/282%69%-0.12
01/04/20262nd7/163%89%+0.26
11/04/20262nd9/276%93%+0.17
19/05/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
07/06/202611th6/168%50%-0.18
19/06/20266th11/486%29%-0.57
04/07/20267th9/153%45%-0.07