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19

Run Forrest Run

8yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 40

Cork · WTW Willis Handicap (0-60) · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

15%

Rank

#2

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won this in 2023 and 2024 for different trainers but looks to have lost his way.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 7.6)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA56 @ Fairyhouse 22/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 18 · OR 56 · 6f Yie 127 · beat its mark22/09/2025 · OR 56 par22/0956OR 56BHA55 @ Navan 08/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 17 · OR 55 · 5f180y Yie 138 · beat its mark08/10/2025 · OR 55 parBHA54 @ Navan 22/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 19 · OR 54 · 5f180y Sft 136 · beat its mark22/10/2025 · OR 54 par22/1054OR 54BHA52 @ Dundalk 29/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 52 · 7f Std 134 · beat its mark29/10/2025 · OR 52 parBHA50 @ Dundalk 03/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 50 · 6f Std 132 · beat its mark03/12/2025 · OR 50 par3/1250OR 50BHA46 @ Dundalk 17/12/2025 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 46 · 7f Std 128 · beat its mark17/12/2025 · OR 46 parBHA40 @ Listowel 31/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 40 · 7f Goo 122 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 40 par31/0540OR 40BHA40 @ Limerick 10/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 40 · 7f Yie 122 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 40 parBHA40 @ Fairyhouse 01/07/2026 · Pos 15th of 17 · OR 40 · 6f Goo 122 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 40 par1/0740OR 40projClass-projected finish: 13th of 20
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-01FairyhouseBHA4015th15th0
2026-06-10LimerickBHA408th8th0
2026-05-31ListowelBHA407th7th0
2025-12-17DundalkBHA4611th11th0
2025-12-03DundalkBHA508th8th0
2025-10-29DundalkBHA526th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0929/1031/051/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 2084% of fieldRange 14-20 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength8%

Delivery trend -1.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 20.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/09/20257th12/137%65%+0.28
08/10/202510th10/147%44%-0.04
22/10/20257th17/255%67%+0.11
29/10/20256th14/126%58%+0.32
03/12/20258th22/10%46%+0.46
17/12/202511th22/10%23%+0.23
31/05/20267th10/147%57%+0.10
10/06/20268th17/255%42%-0.14
01/07/202615th20/10%13%+0.13