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Simmering Seas

3yo Filly · 10-0 · OR 58

Cork · WTW Willis Handicap (0-60) · 6f

#7

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Yet to win but shaping up nicely for new yard, in the frame again at Navan (5f) last time. Tongue tie back on and one to note.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 7.6)

Highest class: BHA54
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Naas 05/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR - · 5f Goo 1285/07C8C8 @ Curragh 09/08/2025 · Pos 24th of 28 · OR - · 6f Gd 128BHA58 @ Curragh 16/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 58 · 6f Gd 119 · beat its mark16/08/2025 · OR 58 par16/0858OR 58BHA58 @ Naas 22/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 58 · 5f Sft 126 · beat its mark22/03/2026 · OR 58 parBHA58 @ Bellewstown 11/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 58 · 5f3y Sft 129 · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 58 par11/0458OR 58BHA54 @ Cork 14/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 54 · 5f Goo 126 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 54 parBHA54 @ Naas 23/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 19 · OR 54 · 5f Goo 134 · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 54 par23/0854OR 54BHA54 @ Curragh 29/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 19 · OR 54 · 6f Yie 121 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 54 parBHA58 @ Navan 05/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 18 · OR 58 · 5f Gd 140 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 58 par5/0958OR 58projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 20
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05NavanBHA584th4th0
2026-08-29CurraghBHA542nd2nd0
2026-08-23NaasBHA544th4th0
2026-08-14CorkBHA542nd2nd0
2026-04-11BellewstownBHA5810th10th0
2026-03-22NaasBHA586th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0722/0323/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 2089% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength89%

Delivery trend +3.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 20. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/07/20258th7/163%50%-0.13
09/08/202524th25/10%15%+0.15
16/08/20257th15/261%45%-0.15
22/03/20266th16/116%64%+0.48
11/04/202610th15/261%36%-0.25
14/08/20262nd11/486%91%+0.05
23/08/20264th7/282%83%+0.02
29/08/20262nd9/153%94%+0.42
05/09/20264th6/168%82%+0.14