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12

Ukiyo

5yo Mare · 9-8 · OR 50

Cork · WTW Willis Handicap (0-60) · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Never looked like justifying support on rare start over the minimum trip at Hamilton 7 weeks ago but had previously reached the frame 4 times this season and returns from a break bidding to win this race for the second year running.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 7.2)

Highest class: BHA50
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA54 @ Dundalk 11/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 54 · 6f Std 140 · beat its mark11/02/2026 · OR 54 par11/0254OR 54BHA54 @ Navan 30/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 54 · 5f180y Hvy 136 · beat its mark30/03/2026 · OR 54 parBHA56 @ Sligo 03/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 56 · 6f61y Sft 138 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 56 par3/0556OR 56BHA54 @ Listowel 31/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 54 · 7f Goo 136 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 54 parBHA54 @ Curragh 03/06/2026 · Pos 15th of 20 · OR 54 · 6f63y Yie 124 · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 54 par3/0654OR 54BHA55 @ Fairyhouse 12/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 55 · 6f Goo 137 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 55 parBHA54 @ Down Royal 19/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 54 · 7f Sft 136 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 54 par19/0654OR 546 @ Ayr 08/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 53 · 6f Goo 128 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Hamilton 11/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 53 · 5f7y Goo 128 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 53 par11/086OR 53projClass-projected finish: 9th of 20
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-11Hamilton66th6th0
2026-08-08Ayr64th4th0
2026-06-19Down RoyalBHA548th8th0
2026-06-12FairyhouseBHA553rd3rd0
2026-06-03CurraghBHA5415th15th0
2026-05-31ListowelBHA542nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0231/0519/0611/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 2074% of fieldRange 11-20 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -11.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 20. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/02/20267th22/10%54%+0.54
30/03/20262nd16/116%93%+0.77
03/05/202612th15/261%15%-0.45
31/05/20262nd16/116%93%+0.77
03/06/202615th11/142%26%-0.16
12/06/20263rd9/153%86%+0.33
19/06/20268th6/168%30%-0.38
08/08/20264th9/153%75%+0.22
11/08/20266th3/184%17%-0.68