Action
3yo Colt · 9-5 · OR 109
Cork · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Navigation Stakes (Listed) · 1m 2f 90y
#11
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 5.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Doncaster | 1 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-08-19 | York | 1 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Ascot | 1 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Curragh | 1 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Epsom Downs | 1 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-05-14 | York | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 25/10/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 24/04/2026 | 4th | 4/6 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 14/05/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 06/06/2026 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 8% | -0.07 |
| 28/06/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 25/07/2026 | 6th | 125/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 19/08/2026 | 8th | 200/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/09/2026 | 11th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |