Alphecca
3yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 91
Cork · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Navigation Stakes (Listed) · 1m 2f 90y
#6
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 10.7 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Listowel | BHA88 | 2nd | 12th | −8 |
| 2026-05-23 | Curragh | 1 | 8th | 8th | +0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Curragh | 1 | 9th | 9th | +0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Naas | BHA89 | 7th | 17th | −8 |
| 2025-10-12 | Naas | BHA82 | 1st | 10th | −7 |
| 2025-10-06 | Killarney | ? | 1st | 10th | −7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 18/09/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 87% | +0.18 |
| 06/10/2025 | 1st | 85/40 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 12/10/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 27/04/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 04/05/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 27% | +0.22 |
| 23/05/2026 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 21/09/2026 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |