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10

Caught U Sleeping

3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 102

Cork · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Navigation Stakes (Listed) · 1m 2f 90y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

13%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Found improvement when winning listed race at Naas in May and better form when making the frame in Group 2 and Group 3s since. Respected back down in class despite her penalty.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength50%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.6
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Leopardstown 13/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 7f Goo 12813/0911 @ Curragh 21/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 1m Hvy 128 · HIGHER CLASS1 @ Leopardstown 12/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 97 · 7f42y Yie 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 97 par12/041OR 971 @ Curragh 04/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 96 · 1m Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 96 par1 @ Naas 09/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 92 · 1m2f84y Goo 128 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 92 par9/051OR 921 @ Naas 24/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 101 · 1m2f84y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/06/2026 · OR 101 par1 @ Newmarket 04/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 102 · 1m4f GF 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 102 par4/071OR 1021 @ Cork 14/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 102 · 1m4f Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 102 par1 @ Gowran Park 19/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 102 · 1m1f100y Yie 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 102 par19/091OR 102projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Gowran Park14th4th+0
2026-08-14Cork13rd3rd+0
2026-07-04Newmarket13rd3rd+0
2026-06-24Naas12nd2nd+0
2026-05-09Naas11st1st0
2026-05-04Curragh18th8th+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/094/054/0719/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength86%

Delivery trend -0.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/09/20253rd16/116%71%+0.56
21/10/20256th12/137%29%-0.08
12/04/20268th7/163%42%-0.21
04/05/20268th50/10%36%+0.36
09/05/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
24/06/20262nd6/168%75%+0.07
04/07/20263rd4/179%75%-0.04
14/08/20263rd5/174%71%-0.02
19/09/20264th12/137%73%+0.36